Cometh the Devil(s)
Beside AI, there are on-going debates around US political landscape that confuse, even blinds many of us with its flow of fake information, non-sense comments or co-optation-led reactions spread over multiple social networks. Mind that it is usually not in my habits to comment on US affairs, as politics now resembles more a theater with actors playing very bad roles. This is a personal opinion, and in this post, I would like to take a very harsh, lest gloomy view based on history as I was reminded of a quite valuable book for those willing to understand what is at stakes in the US..
In an interview published on 2nd September 2025 by the colourful Financial Times, Ray Dalio is warning:
"US is sliding towards 1930s-style autocracy".
This is an opinion expressed by a billioniare hedge fund boss, who is supposedly a friend of the MAGA constellation of POTUS supporters. The journalist commented that he "[] resisted calling the president’s model authoritarian or socialist", but described the mechanics bluntly:
"Governments increasingly take control of what is done by central banks and businesses."
Link to the the interview here: https://www.ft.com/content/b86bd33b-b3e7-4485-8b1c-6f01e639dd04
In the past months, many writers including economists have expressed opinions making references to what happened in Europe between 1930 and 1936 when Hitler and Stalin came to power before war erupted. In the last fifty years, many of the often cited historians have conducted deep research based on sources, which have come to us in various forms: films, administrative archives, recording, witness’s testimonials, etc. leading to some "conclusions" about the reasons behind the rise of totalitarianism, authoritarianism and dictatorship. Most of those references take the economic perspective as the main focus. On my side, as a curious citizen, I feel that reading books written by eminent US lawyers or politicians who were living and working during that period allows for a perspective shedding a different light on what is happening or could happen in the future on American soil.
In one of those books, namely "The Folklore of Capitalism" by Thurman Arnold, first edition in 1937, there is an introductory chapter in which some sections resonate quite strikingly with what Ray Dalio explained in his Financial Times interview. I will not comment about the reasoning, it is a simple indicator about how some people were analyzing the turmoil happening in Europe at that time, then, looking at some ways to prevent the same from happening in the USA. The proposed view is simple, yet interesting enough to warrant some personal reflections even though it might be considered a sophism in disguise.
In the chapter "Government and the Thinking Man", Thurman Arnold writes:
"All arguments again heresy follow the same pattern. A Devil must be first discovered who is trying to lead the people astray. A Hell must be invented which illustrates what happens to those who listen to the Devil. The conception of free will is essential. Then the age-old story is told. Russia and Germany listened to the Devil. They are therefore in Hell. In our rational and sophisticated age the Devil and the Hell become very complicated. The true faith is Capitalism. Its priests are lawyers and economics. The Devil consists of an abstract man called a demagogue. He is the kind of person who refuses to be moved by sound economists and lawyers and who is constantly misleading the people by making the worse appear the better reason."
Despite its clear Manichean veil, this stance may ring a bell to some of us. The context, we are in 1937 in the USA and Europe was about to witness the 2nd World War, probably ignited this metaphorical view. I also believe that the education of the author led him to use the typical "Two-valued" logic, which was well explained by S.I. Hayakawa in his book "Language in Thought and Action" (1939). Coming back to 2025, there are two additional contextual elements to be considered: the fake-ridden information landscape and the rise of a rich "libertarian" oligarchic class. The true faith has therefore evolved and a different bunch of priests has come to power. Interestingly enough, in a usual authoritarian way, POTUS will claim that the others are the Devil, and the Hell is a consequence of those others not in agreement with his politics, leading to anarchy all over the place (Chicago, Washington, Los Angeles). Does this mean we can compare Trump with the like of Hitler or Stalin? Well, POTUS just proposed to rename the Pentagon into the Department of War ... That, notwithstanding the unfriendly declarations of three undemocratically elected communists during the recent pagentry organized for the commemoration of the Sino-Japanese war's end.
As a conclusion, I don't think that what Thurman Arnold wrote should prompt us to say that today's US politics is sliding us back to 1930 and that economy will collapse. Unfortunately, I do believe that a generation of warmongers interested only in their own glory or the glory of a country that no longer exists, surrounded by a generation of pseudo-intellectuals similar to those who lulled the German people into complacency back in 1930, is leading us towards a future that looks like war. So, I believe it is important to study the mechanisms that prevented Hell to become reality, avoiding the use of the same "two-valued" logic discourse that is the kernel of the totalitarian ideology's malicious gossip spoken by autocrats. Critical-thinking based on ethical principles is the rational way to avoid the contemptuous behaviors of too many citizens misleaded by this logic used by demagogues, lest populists. And we, together with the "Thinking Man", should be nurturing group free will in defense of our democratic values as Thurman Arnold outlines in the subsequent chapters of his book.
PS: If you are interested in a global socio-economic analysis of what happened in the 1930, as witnessed on Europe side, read again Polanyi or Hayek. For the very curious, have a look at the other side of the mirror, with a German author like Ferdinand Fried who wrote "Ende des Kapitalismus" in support of National-Socialism (https://www.endstation-rechts.de/news/antikapitalismus-von-rechts-ferdinand-fried-und-das-konzept-der-autarkie). And do not tell me ... "Gosh, we didn't know". I agree with Thurman Arnold, the topic is sophisticated.
